Оцінювання природного й техногенного ризику для людини = Estimation of natural and technological risk for human

Abstract

The method of risk assessment for human health, which as a result of emergencies is under the influence of occasional emerging extreme loads, is considered in the article. It can be determined using the model of "load - bearing capacity" due to the frequency of deaths. It is shown, that losses for a person can be caused by both direct influence, and remote consequences of dangerous phenomena, the mechanism of onset of which is similar to mechanism of action of unfavorable industrial factors. The probability of negative events for the time interval t can be estimated from their frequency (intensity), if we consider these events as a stream of random events. Assuming that the conditions for the realization of danger in the interval of observation time remain unchanged, we have a simple Poisson stream of random events. The main characteristic of such events is their frequency. Here is an example of the risk assessment of deaths from radiation damage.