Assessment Of A Trading Enterprise’s Stability: Integral Index And Early Risk Warning Indicators

Міняйленко, Інна Валентинівна

Кулакова, Світлана Юріївна

Dubishchev, Viktor

Miniailenko, Inna

Kulakova, Svitlana

The article substantiates a methodological approach to assessing the resilience of retail enterprises under wartime conditions based on an integrated resilience index and a system of early warning risk indicators. It proposes a structured resilience index encompassing financial, operational, and market dimensions. The study systematises the key risk factors and identifies corresponding early warning indicators. The practical significance of the proposed methodology lies in its application to continuous monitoring, resilience assessment, and the support of preventive managerial decision-making.

The article substantiates a methodological approach to assessing the stability of a trading enterprise under wartime
conditions through the combination of an integral stability index and a system of early risk warning indicators. The
relevance is determined by the need to evaluate not only the current financial condition, but also the ability to maintain
operational continuity, preserve market positions, and respond in advance to destructive changes. The purpose is
to develop a practical analytical toolkit for comprehensive diagnosis of enterprise stability and identification of crisis
signals before they transform into losses, liquidity gaps, supply disruptions, or sales decline. The methodological
basis includes comparative analysis of scientific approaches, integral evaluation, risk management, and key risk
indicators; logical generalization; grouping by financial, operational, and market dimensions; linear normalization;
weighted aggregation; and scenario-based interpretation. The proposed integral index is formed from representative
indicators, including liquidity, capital autonomy, return on sales, inventory turnover, operational downtime, and real
sales volume dynamics. A basic weighting model is suggested in which the financial component has the highest
priority, while operational and market components complement the assessment. The paper systematizes early
warning indicators linked to critical wartime risks: demand decline, liquidity shortage, supply interruptions, power
instability, staff turnover, and physical loss of assets. Threshold values are proposed for each indicator, making the model suitable for regular monitoring and preventive response. Approbation on model data demonstrates a sharp
decrease in the stability index during the crisis period and only partial recovery after adaptation measures. This
confirms that an integral assessment should be supplemented by signal indicators to reveal fact of
deterioration also its source.

торговельне підприємство

інтегральний індекс

фінансова стійкість

раннє попередження ризиків

управління ризиками

enterprise stability

trading enterprise

integral index

financial stability

early risk warning

risk management

Publishing House "Helvetica"