Demand Forecasting And Inventory Optimization In Retail: From Data Processing To Managerial Decision-Making

Міняйленко, Інна Валентинівна

Кобець, Сергій Петрович

Kulakova, Svitlana

Miniailenko, Inna

Kobets, Serhii

The article substantiates a comprehensive approach to demand forecasting and inventory optimisation in retail trade. It proposes an algorithm that integrates sales data analysis, ABC/XYZ segmentation, the selection of forecasting models, and the calculation of inventory replenishment parameters. The study demonstrates that implementing the proposed approach improves service levels, reduces stockouts and excess inventory, accelerates inventory turnover, and can be effectively integrated into ERP, WMS, Business Intelligence (BI) systems, as well as Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) processes.

The article substantiates an integrated approach to demand forecasting and inventory optimization in retail trade that connects data preparation, analytical modeling, and managerial decision making within a single process. The study is motivated by the need to balance product availability, customer service, and inventory carrying costs under conditions of volatile demand, seasonal fluctuations, promotional effects, and supply uncertainty. The purpose of the research is to develop a practical algorithm that transforms historical sales data and market signals into concrete replenishment decisions for a retail enterprise. The methodological basis combines a systems approach, time-series analysis, ABC/XYZ assortment segmentation, scenario modeling, and inventory control tools for determining reorder points, safety stocks, and economic order quantities. The proposed model starts with data cleaning and identification of demand drivers, then differentiates items by value and predictability, selects forecasting methods according to the behavior of sales series, evaluates forecast error, and links forecast outputs to inventory policies and service-level targets. In contrast to fragmented approaches where forecasting and inventory control are treated separately, the developed framework integrates them through a decision logic that also includes consensus planning and adaptive managerial corrections. The article demonstrates how different strategies should be applied to stable, high-value items, irregular demand positions, and risk-sensitive categories. A scenario block is incorporated in order to test the resilience of replenishment plans under pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic demand trajectories. The results of the simulation-based assessment show that the integrated approach can improve service performance, reduce the share of stockouts and excessive inventories, accelerate inventory turnover, and release working capital without sacrificing customer availability.

оптимізація запасів

роздрібна торгівля

ABC/XYZ-аналіз

страховий запас

сценарний аналіз

планування продажів і операцій

demand forecasting

inventory optimization

retail trade

ABC/XYZ analysis

safety stock

scenario analysis

S&OP

Public organization "All-Ukrainian Assembly of Doctors of Science in Public Administration"